Thursday, June 26, 2008

Why the democrats always lose big summer leads

Every election cycle the Democratic candidate has a big lead in the polls going into summer. Dukakis is the most famous example. Why do they always end up losing those leads?

Simple. During the primaries they run as anti-war social democrats to appeal to their base. Then after they win the nomination, they say fuck all that liberal shit, we need a strong military, free trade, low wages, any you, loser, take responsibility for your own health and if you don't like it we'll raise your rates. Hell, we'll raise them anyway.

I fear that this is happening with Senator Obama right now. He ran against Bush's excesses, now he supports warrantless spying on Americans. He ran against Nafta, now he thinks it's the greatest thing since warrantless spying. He treats poor Muslim women who show up at his campaign events like dirt.

And I'm really afraid of what will happen when this sucking off the right causes his poll numbers to plummet. If now is like the past, the consensus will be that he is too liberal and in order to show that he is not a liberal, he will find that we need more troops in Iraq and that they will need bases built to last 1000 years. And if the consensus is still that he's too liberal, he may begin thinking that perhpas some tax cuts for the wealthy will get the economy moving again, or at least his poll numbers.

Of course it's too early to tell, but he's off to a bad start, seemingly following the move to right for the general election game plan that has fucked up so many other Democratic candidates.