Sunday, January 01, 2012

The Alternate Universe Fallacy

Glen Grunwald spent nearly half an article about Ron Paul’s vs Obama’s foreign policy defending himself against partisans who he was sure would attack him for acting on his belief that a political discussion could conceivably occur outside of the “Red v. Blue Cage Match.” I’ve had some small experience with this phenomena over the years. I don’t read Grunwald regularly, but I can see that he’s getting hit with a shitstorm for his accurate reporting on the crimes, heinous crimes, and numerous misdemeanors of the Obama administration. Let me stress the word “accurate.” And of course “heinous.”

The argument against accurate reporting is always that the alternative would be much, much worse. Sure, they say, Obama is not the ideal president, but he’s a helluva lot better than X (McCain, Palin, Gingrich, Romney, any other GOP ogre of the day) would be. So even though Obama works hard to achieve massive tax cuts for the wealthy, fights to keep home stealing bankers free from prosecution, puts massive cuts to social security and medicare on the table, uses drones to commit mass murder abroad, and signs laws that allow the military greater authority to detain and interrogate U.S. citizens and deny them legal rights protected by the Constitution — among numerous other attacks on important principles we’ve always believed in — we cannot speak of these very real actions taking place in the very real world.

Why is it so wrong to speak of Obama’s actions? Because honestly depicting Obama’s actions may conceivably cause someone somewhere not to vote for him, thus putting our hands in the fate of some Republican psychopath. Sure, the logic goes, Obama is bad, but McCain would have been a helluva lot worse. And Romney, Gingrich, Paul, whichever, would be infinitely worse still.

Is that true? Perhaps, but one can’t actually say for sure about things that did not happen in the past or have yet to happen in the future — things that could only possibly have happened in some alternative universe. And you can play that game pretty much anyway you want. There are alternative universes out there to support any conceivable point of view. But in real life, things on the presidential scale never, ever, turn out exactly as one would have predicted. Take Nixon and Reagan (please) for example. Many feared dire consequences if they were elected and not that there weren’t dire consequences but they turned out to be nowhere near as bad as our worst fears. Significant opposition kept them from achieving their most heinous goals. Obama, unfortunately, has no significant opposition and he is achieving horrors as bad as our worst (short of nuclear war) fears about Nixon and Reagan.

Still, I understand how hard it is to get away from the alternate universe fallacy. Gore v. Bush will no doubt live long as the club of choice for whacking the reality-based folk. and it’s hard not to argue that those Nader voters in Florida screwed us over royally. Nevertheless, we don’t actually know what would have happened in that Gore-centric alternative universe. There may well have been a military coup rather than the supreme court ordered coup that happened in real life. There are so, so many alternative universes. They are as infinite as they are infinitely irrelevant. To argue based on one is to indulge in a logical fallacy plain and simple.

But hey, we’re not computers. Let’s indulge in one anyway. Consider, if you dare, an alternative universe in which voters vote their principles. And this is far-fetched, I know, but in this principle-centric alternative universe those same voters are not afraid to speak up in favor of their principles. Thus, in this far-fetched alternative universe, a politician is judged on how well he or she represents the voters’ principles. And more importantly, the voters speak up and tell the politicians in no uncertain terms that if they don’t represent those principles, they’re not going to get a lot of votes.

Just a fantasy, you say? No doubt, but must it be that way? Must the majority remain silent as politicians we voted for implement policies antithetical to our principles?

Must we support heartless, ultra-violent oligarchies bent on ruining the lives of multitudes simply because the goings on in an imaginary alternative universe might be worse? Well, yes, you say? Okay, fine, but must we just shut the fuck up about it as well?

Well, maybe that’s for the best. “What can a thoughtful man hope for mankind on earth, given the experience of the past million years?” asks the Fourteenth Book of Bokonon. “Nothing,” is the reply.

Sunday, May 22, 2011

Packed up and Moved

Unfortunately, poor chuckling has entered the witness protection program, or something like that, and will forthwith be writing under an assumed name. Though still a fictional character writing for a fictional magazine...

Monday, February 07, 2011

Capitalism at its best

Can't help noticing that the Huffington Post, a mostly written publication which proudly does not pay its writers, has sold for $315 million. I don't know if there's a list of most ridiculous ways in which content producers have been swindled, but this has gotta be up there?

Sunday, February 06, 2011

It's not all hopeless

I just came across my kid's school newspaper. Here are the front page headlines:

Faculty Disagree on What makes a "Grade" (note: the school doesn't give grades but many faculty members always try to get around that policy. Administration notes that system has been around for a long time and works quite well)

Students Demand more Humanities Classes (Students upset that they are allowed to take two or three language, art, science or math classes but can only take one English or History Class at a time. Administration notes that system has been around for a long time and works quite well.)

Teachers Debate Use of Films in Class (Not much of a debate. Everyone agrees it's a sign of laziness and doesn't teach much. (Administration notes that policy of focusing on primary sources has been around a long time and works quite well).

Teacher Evaluations Considered (Everyone agrees it could be a good thing. Administration notes that current system has been around a long time and works quite well).

Some pretty good inside stories as well:

Nabokov, Salinger Consistently Stolen from Library

Science Students Seek Outside Forums for Sharing Research

WikiLeaks: Harmful or Helpful?

Room for Discussion: Debate on idea of an all-elective high school with no graduation requirements

Brooklyn Museum Hightlights Rockwell's Use of Photographs

Islamophobia on the Rise in the United States

City Reacts to Bloomberg's Controversial Education Appointment

Defining "Hipsters": A Window into Modern Society

I think all this provides a few pointers on excellent possibilities for education reform. Unfortunately, when given the choice between actually making education good or cutting everything but test prep and advanced test prep, most morons in charge choose all test prep all the time.

Wednesday, January 19, 2011

There by the assholery of god...

Sadly, I can relate all too well to much, too much, of this article in the Guardian UK about writers who have attempted to quit drinking for the month of January. For example:

During the day it's not so bad – except that there's nothing to look forward to, of course. But the evenings I'm finding hard. They go on and on and on. Who knew that evenings were quite such enormous, terrifying voids that need to be filled somehow?
Yes, I know exactly how he feels having let an alcohol in the evening habit grow imperceptibly over the course of many years. Interesting though, how these Brits admit it, even wallow in it, whereas we Americans prefer denial and/or self-flagellation.

Sunday, January 09, 2011

Move along, nothing to see here

I've been watching the news coverage about the Tucson shooting for a couple hours now without hearing even one mention of the fact that Sarah Palin literally put her in the crosshairs. In fact, the news weenies are falling all over themselves emphasizing how outraged the Republicans and Tea Party idiots are about the shooting. By this afternoon "some people" will be speculating that it was all a plot by Obama and many others will openly pray for his death. More responsible Republicans will use the incident to gut any and all gun control legislation and call for tax cuts for the wealthy in order to curtail incidents like this in the future.

Thursday, January 06, 2011

Say what?

The New York Times tells us of a series of experiments that suggests ESP may be for real, and the accompanying outcry that such nonsense would be published by a respected academic journal. Well, I lack the ESP to know whether or not ESP exists, but I was struck by this common sense "proof" presented by one of the skeptics:

"...these experts say; if ESP exists, why aren’t people getting rich by reliably predicting the movement of the stock market or the outcome of football games?"

Hmmm, so nobody is getting rich by reliably predicting the stock market? Not the best example, anti-esp folk.

Thursday, November 04, 2010

picture says it all



Has there ever been a politician more openly contemptuous of the people who worked so hard to elect him? Inviting the Republicans to dinner? Why doesn't he invite the people who supported him to dinner? Because he despises us, that's why. He just wants to be popular with the old farts in the country club. He'll shine their shoes, wash their balls, carry their bags, pay for their meals, lavish billions of dollars on them -- anything to be accepted. And the more he tries, the more it's him they despise.

Weak fucking loser ought to invite us to dinner. Not gonna happen, eh? And now with another election in two years, he'll soon come round begging us to pay for those dinners we're not invited to attend. Not me Bub. Ask your good buddy Joe Leiberman and your openly Republican friends.

Saturday, July 10, 2010

fucked up as hell

This story in the NYT about synthetic marijuana demonstrates in two important ways just how ridiculous and fucked up this society is:

First, how fucking ridiculous, ridiculously evil, is it to let people use dangerous chemicals that exist only to mimic the effects of a harmless weed? Pretty ridiculous, and fucked up.

Second, the kid who killed himself "began “freaking out,” saying he was “going to hell.” Isn't it possible that his ridiculous religious beliefs had at least as much to do with his suicide and the fake weed? Fucked up as hell, I say.

Tuesday, June 01, 2010

Brooklyn sucks

I've been spending a lot of time in the Bronx lately. The south Bronx at that. I've always heard it's like the worst fucking place on earth. Maybe that's an exaggeration, but certainly one of the worst places in New York City. Yet I've found it much more pleasant than Brooklyn. For example today I took a wrong turn and ended up on the wrong crowded freeway and then drove streets for about 30 long blocks at rush hour. About two thirds of the way out I was fiddling with my phone and realized that the light had changed four or five seconds ago. Shocked, I looked in the rearview to make sure there were cars behind me. Yes, of course, it was rush hour, there were cars behind me. Yet no one honked. What the fuck was that all about? In Brooklyn they time their honks to go off the split second before the light changes. If you actually hesitate a split second into the green light, it's very possible that two or three people behind you will burst a blood vessel due to their rage. They'll certainly lay on the horn. But the Bronx was different. At least today, and why would today be any different? It never is in Brooklyn.

Saturday, September 19, 2009

Value priced values

I'm sure I'm not the only one who's noticed the blatant hypocrisy of the Values Voter Summit in Washington, D.C. These paragons of morality boil with hatred for President Obama, who is by all accounts a wonderful family man. Meanwhile they cheer for Bill O'Reilly, a sleaze bag well-known for outrageous lying, bullying and sexually harassing young women one third his age. Watching that circus, reasonable people must conclude, the only values those pigs value are power and money. Unless you count hatred as a value. Then they value three. And murder? Maybe four?

On a related note, I can understand that so many values voters think President Obama is an arch-demon in the process of bringing about Armageddon and the return of an ultra-violent Christ to kill their enemies by the millions. These value voters live in a demon haunted world of primitive myth and superstition. That, plus they are plumb stupid. But what I don't get is how so many of them get away with claiming that Obama is destroying the Constitution. Although I read that people constantly make that claim, I've never seen any details of exactly how they believe he is doing it. Unless his willingness to sign laws passed by Congress is unconstitutional? Or respecting the Constitution is unconstitutional. Oh, who am I kidding. Of course I understand. Since Obama is a demon and the Constitution is whatever God's chosen people (the really chosen--right wing demagogues, not Jews) say it is, then anything the demon says or does is unconstitutional. Of course it's not entirely that simple. There's power and money in riling up the rubes. Any excuse will do. Value added, you know.

Wednesday, September 16, 2009

Apocolypse nowadays

Talking Points Memo reports a poll that finds New Jersey Republicans to be mostly ignorant morons of biblical proportions.

To be precise, 18% of self-identified conservatives affirmatively say that Obama is the anti-Christ, with 17% not sure. Among the self-identified Republican label, it's 14% who say Obama has the number 666 hidden underneath his hair, plus 15% who aren't sure.
I mean, it's certifiably insane to believe in the existence of an anti-Christ. But how can anyone smart enough to breath even imagine that Obama is a super powerful demon who will throw the world into catastrophic religious war that will usher the return of Christ, who will kill millions?

Is there a more stupid text than Revelation, outside of the Aztecs, in any religion anywhere in the world? It's laughable primitive superstition of the worst sort. Think I'm exaggerating? I'll show you. I don't have to cherry pick. It's a fucking orchard. Just watch, nothing up my sleeve. I'll do the old "open it anywhere and point to a random paragraph" trick:
This is he who came with water and blood: Jesus Christ. He came, not by water alone, but by water and blood; and there is the Spirit to bear witness, because the Spirit is truth. For there are three witnesses, the Spirit, the water, and the blood, and these three are in agreement.
Sounds like a Monty Python sketch, eh? I mean, there are four witnesses, the Spirt, the water, the blood, and the bleeding Watney's Red Barrel, natch.

Watch, I'll do it again:
Then another angel came out of the heavenly temple, and he also had a sharp sickle. Then from the alter came yet another, the angel who has authority over fire, and he shouted to the one wit the sharp sickle: 'Stretch out your sickle a, and gather in earth's grape-harvest, for its clusters are ripe.' So the angel put his sickle to the earth and gathered in its grapes, and threw them into the great wine press of God's wrath. The wine press was trodden outside the city, and for two hundred miles around blood flowed from the press to the height of the horses' bridles.
The great wine press of God's wrath? Morons.

Unfortunately, however, the poll goes on to find that New Jersey Democrats are only marginally less stupid:
32% of Jersey Democrats who say that George W. Bush had advance knowledge of the 9/11 attacks. In addition, another 19% of Jersey Dems are Truther-Curious, in the undecided column.
Could there be a bit of misunderstanding there. Are those 32 percent "Truthers" or did the mean that George W. Bush had advanced warning that Al Quaeda was planning to attack targets inside the United States, which is true.

Perhaps, but I'm willing to concede that 32 percent of Democrats will believe pretty much any kind of nonsense. We, as a society, are rapidly reverting to ignorance and superstition reminiscent of the dark ages. Just because someone supports Obama doesn't mean they are enlightened. They may just believe in a different type of voodoo. More and more, whoever best manipulates primitive fear and superstition will win.

Monday, September 14, 2009

Shape of things

Regarding an alleged terror plot reported at Talking Points Memo:

...according to the Times, a law enforcement official said they had "only a hazy view of the group, its operations and goals, but decided to act fearing that undercover surveillance had failed to detect plans that might be developing."

If I read that correctly, they're saying that they arrested a bunch of people because they didn't know anything about them and couldn't prove that they were doing anything illegal. Yep. That makes sense. Perfect sense, unfortunately. In a Latin American right wing dictatorship circa 1980, pués. And ya'all wonder why I'm somewhat less than optimistic?

Sunday, September 13, 2009

People who died



I just heard that Jim Carroll died. That's sad. He is one of my literary gods.

The above was an interesting little project that integrated an interview with JC about Columbine and one of his masterworks, the poem "Borges Death Mask." It's incredibly rare to see this kind of thing on TV. Amateurish production, no doubt (it was a first effort on a primitive Mac), but JC comes through as so much better than the other peoples' shows he stars in.

Alternate link here: Borges Death Mask